Baby Tax need to save planet
Eco-Friendly Kangaroo Farts could help global warming
These article cracks me up!! It truly amazes me the hysteria generated from books like An Inconvienient Truth. I say hysteria because the defenders of the catastrophic global warming models completely reject any form of skeptism and denounce those that do as stupid and ignorant.
Supporters of global warming ( and truly what I mean is warming caused by the activity of people) say that there is a large consensus that it is, infact, occuring. They will point to the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC). It is important to point out that the IPCC is itself an arm of the UN and therefore part of a political organization. Its panel members are selected by politicians and it has an agenda of its own. Several polls of professional opinion indicate that widespread scientific scepticism exists with the IPCC orthodoxy. The published science that the IPCC draws upon to make its recommendations is mostly authoritative and widely accepted but, at the same time,
many distinguished and well qualified scientists, including myself,(you are supposed to laugh here) disagree with some of its findings.
Nowhere does Mr. Gore tell his audience or readers that all of the phenomena described in AIT fall within the natural range of previous environmental change on our planet. Nor does he present any evidence that climate during the 20th century departed discernibly from its historical pattern of constant change. This is not surprising, for no such evidence has been identified. Nor – remarkably, in view of its importance to his overall thesis - does Mr. Gore mention that global average
temperature shows no greenhouse warming at the earth’s surface since at least 1998, and none in the lower atmosphere since 1979. Because of such egregious selectivity, AIT presents as propaganda for a global warming cause rather than as a balanced and well-made documentary about climate science reality.
When you have trouble making sense of your observations, check the fundamentals behind your basic premises; in this case, those behind the prediction of global warming.
When I hear predictions based on averages and standard deviations, I can tell without knowing the details of any of the various models that the person making the prediction is using the mathematics of closed, random systems. Because the phenomena being modeled are open, chaotic systems for which no good mathematics have yet been devised, the output of such models should be suspect.
In addition, the predictions and measurements to support those predictions are expressed in temperature of the atmosphere. When predictions and measurement refer to heat, the appropriate unit is calories. To translate calories into atmospheric temperature requires knowledge of each component of the system, because the specific heat of the atmosphere varies markedly with its moisture content.
The first and second laws of thermodynamics should also be considered. They require the interconvertability of all forms of energy, and the trend toward maximum entropy (disorder or chaos). Thus, radiant energy from the sun is absorbed as thermal energy that is converted in part into the dynamic energy of wind and wave, the latent energy of water vapor in the atmosphere, and the electrical energy accumulated in clouds. Combined in this chaotic mix is the thermal energy from Earth’s core and the kinetic energy of the tides, which is created by the momentum of the moon. This is a picture of multiple inputs and interlocking energy cycles-chaos indeed!!
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11 comments:
Very impressive! I never cease to be amazed that people think in terms of closed systems with direct cause and effect. I doubt that scientist's have really scratched the surface of the underlying causes for global warming.
BTW, nice bibliography!
Leo,
As I read more and more scintific papers and studies, I realize that the complexity of global events is is far too multifarious to be explained by just one source-human activity.
What I find most dangerous in the global warming debate is the mob hysteria shouting down healthy and needed skeptism!
Kinda ironic that disagreement is not allowed in the global warming circles. I suppose that once the decision is made the team has to go along - or else! May lead the cynical to think that there are ulterior motives?
Like Leo said, nice bibliography! I've done some research on this issue, but nothing that scratches the surface of yours. Even in my little bit of research I can see the rank conjecture taking place in the environmental movement. It has taken on a life of its own which I see as very dangerous; it has become highly political and is very much in vogue. Children are indoctrinated to believe that we are in a crisis and that we actually have that much control over the environment.
I'm all for taking care of the earth God gave us dominion over, but evirnomentalism takes it unnecessarily too far.
"I'm all for taking care of the earth God gave us dominion over, but evirnomentalism takes it unnecessarily too far."
That should read "I'm all for taking care of the earth God gave us dominion over, but evirnomentalism, as we know it today, takes it unnecessarily too far.
I forgot to say that we're raising a generation of children who believe that man is in fact the cause of global warming. So the environmentalists will be able to keep their scare tactics going (thus their money and power) in generations to come. That is, until the earth starts to become colder. Then they will make up some other reason people are responsible for climate change.
I think our advances in science and technology have encouraged a dangerous hubris within our scientific communities. They've been right on a lot of things and so they think they're right on global warming. (Though, I think some know exactly what they're doing and are in it for selfish reasons.) The up and comings are not thinking critically and are not taught to think critically on so-called " already-proven" science and take the ball running with this spurious initial information; thus, perpetuating the mad cycle.
The elites then further perpetuate the madness because of their own hubris (only the unintelligent disbelieve "science") and need to report their vast knowledge to the masses.
It truly boggles my mind the absolute hysteria that has been generated. And the knee jerk legistlation that will ultimately result is a myriad of unintended consequences. For example, the raising of cafe standards. This will force car manufacturers to raise the price of cars in order to put in the R&D needed to produce a higher mileage vehicle. The increase demand for ethanol will cause food shortages for both people and live stock, further driving the price of food up. The current amount of corn, if all were used to replace gas, would only replace 7% of the current demand for fossil fuels. So, more land will be needed for crops which means more fertilizers will be needed which means more run off which means more pollution that heads for the gulf of mexico via the Mississippi river which means increasing the dead zones in the gulf, which effects fishing so fish prices go up, more fishermen are out of jobs which means......
And all this, for something that we did nto cause, nor can control.
I appologize for the misspellings and poor grammer. I am at work and just started typing. But I think my point was made. That the simple and noble idea of trying to produce less poluting cars can and will affect people and enviroment all over the place. I am sure that Gore and Dingel have not thought about that.
I agree Michael. I was just saying the other day that we should not count on corn to be our alternative source. Drought would be our number one enemy. Many regions are in drought for several years. Can you imagine the predicament we'd be in if we experienced severe drought across the nation? We ARE in a warming cycle and there is no telling how long that will last or if it will get warmer and affect the crops. I'm just thinking out loud here.
You are probably right when you say Gore, et al have probably not thought this through.
Read Peter Doran's clarification of one of the articles you posted: http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/27/opinion/27doran.html
I bring this up because the essential part of the global warming arguement should be about facts and interpretation, not a shotgun blast of journal titles that seem to contradict other scientific findings. Also, anyone who has been involved in scientific research knows that the idea that scientists are a "team that goes along (with the 'popular' idea)" knows that statement to be far from the truth. Finally, I can say that personally, my environmentalism was caused by my learning and understanding of science. Many of you suggest that environmentalists become scientists to forward misleading theories based on previously-held beliefs. I think you are way off the mark here.
Joel, thanks for you comments. The "shot gun blast" of journal titles are facts. Too many times, journalist and politicians cherry pick "facts" to forward an agenda. I put the list of refereed journals to show that there are other ideas, data and interpretations out there and that the concept of man-made global warming is not a conclusion, but an hypothesis that needs to be investigated further. How can that be off the mark?
Since I have written that blog a couple of other facts have come forth. 1. This years global temperature is significantly lower than the trend has been predicted. 2. Ocean temps, temperatures that most scientist accept as the real guage in global warming, have not increased in 3 years.
My personal belief on this subject is this: I believe, after reviewing a lot of literature and data, is that the warming trend is cyclic and the human factor (regarding green house gases) is a minor effect. However, having said that, I believe that we do need to look at doing everything we can to reduce emissions, and create a more harmonious relationship with our planet. There is not question that human activity has cause harm to wildlife such as the salmon in the Northwestern part of the US.
Well, I will read the link you provided and possibly comment again. Thanks again Joel.
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